Impending Doom

A virus’ impending doom can quickly spread to cause international concern. However, to sit and worry about attacks has never been productive. So, the real problem lies in what to do in preparation for the future.

A Nature article focuses on the lack of bird flu data, and pinpoints the root of the problem to not having an adequate flow of information between countries. While getting along with these other countries is important, should we not be more concerned about trying to produce a vaccine?

The public has the right to know about this deadly disease, one that has the means to kill more people than many of the previous flu pandemics, including the epidemic of 1918. Scientists and government officials need to be ready for this type of outbreak, because once the flu mutates to become contagious between people, if immediate treatment is not given within the first 48 hours then death is even more rapid.

Instead, some people such as the author of the Nature article are more concerned about creating an international database containing information about the Avian flu. As of today, there are no laws requiring the government report any sicknesses other than yellow fever, cholera, and the plague leading officials to worry that there have been unreported cases of the bird flu.
But should we be putting all of our efforts towards trying to reform the World Health Organization, or should we be putting them towards bringing together the best internationally acclaimed scientists as a team?

Officials, both scientists and those in the government, are somewhat convinced that one of the first outbreaks of the Avian flu is going to occur after a plane ride. One person who has obtained the flu in another country may sit beside someone who has not yet contracted the flu. However, once the infected person sneezes or commits some other seemingly harmless act, the flu is transmitted and can quickly spread throughout the plane. Once these people get off this first flight, and either go home or transfer to another flight, the flu can quickly be spread.
How much help is an international flu database going to be, when these people have to be found, quarantined, diagnosed, and their lives saved within the first 48 hours of being on that plane?

No sure place has yet been reached that would make scientists feel confident enough to say they have a sure-fire vaccine in case of an epidemic. This obviously needs to be solved as soon as possible, for once the Avian flu mutates to become easily passable between humans, there is not much time to stop it before it spreads into a pandemic.

Scientists have stated that level of lethality in the virus depends on the changes it undergoes, but more importantly this means that the virus can take many different paths all to result in death. These different paths make it much more difficult to produce a viable vaccine, and simultaneously make it imperative for top scientists to consult among each other.

Scientists, as well as the world, need to be ready for the devastation this virus could induce. The only way we can be ready for this however, would be to completely focus on what to do once the outbreak hits, not overly worrying about what countries are getting along with whom.

The United States government has attempted to develop an adequate course of action to take in the event of a rapid flu spread, in order to prevent a pandemic. However, this falls in line with what the author of Nature is suggesting and nothing concrete has been set or even provided for monetarily. While the U.S. government has the ability to control things such as domestic travel and other regulations within our own country, the government would have trouble providing significant authority over international regulations, or even air flights. This may be where the Nature author feels it would be appropriate to have an international "treaty" of sorts, but once again, it would be impossible to terminate all flights and, in a sense, quarantine several countries at a time.

Instead of looking towards what is going to happen after the pandemic hits full force, it would be a much better investment of time to look tactics that would prevent a pandemic altogether.

Sources
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/11/world/11flu.html?ex=1171688400&en=66a4041d8b503b0f&ei=5070

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v440/n7082/full/440255b.html (Subscription required)

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/facts.htm

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/04/health/04flu.html?ex=1171688400&en=94ede87c8ed1ad2c&ei=5070